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4 of 12 matches with xG: 10 goals from 7.0 xG (1.42 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colchester 0–0 Gillingham | 0.55–0.77 | 24% · 39% · 37% | Draw in line with xG |
| Bromley 3–1 Crawley Town | 2.07–0.63 | 71% · 19% · 10% | Win in line with xG for Bromley |
| Harrogate Town 0–2 Accrington ST | 0.11–0.35 | 7% · 66% · 27% | Close call, Accrington ST won |
| Crewe 2–2 Newport County | 1.60–0.94 | 53% · 25% · 22% | Draw against the xG: Crewe had 53% |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.