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12 of 12 matches with xG: 38 goals from 36.0 xG (1.06 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bristol Rovers 0–3 Swindon Town | 1.37–1.32 | 38% · 26% · 36% | Close call, Swindon Town won |
| Salford City 4–3 Colchester | 2.44–1.44 | 60% · 19% · 22% | Win in line with xG for Salford City |
| Accrington ST 0–1 Bromley | 1.38–2.09 | 25% · 21% · 54% | Win in line with xG for Bromley |
| Cheltenham 1–1 Harrogate Town | 1.35–2.42 | 20% · 19% · 61% | Draw against the xG: Harrogate Town had 61% |
| Chesterfield 3–1 Barnet | 1.98–1.54 | 48% · 22% · 30% | Win in line with xG for Chesterfield |
| Crawley Town 2–2 Oldham | 2.06–1.41 | 53% · 21% · 26% | Draw against the xG: Crawley Town had 53% |
| Gillingham 2–2 Barrow | 0.95–1.31 | 27% · 28% · 45% | Draw in line with xG |
| Grimsby 0–2 Notts County | 1.06–1.35 | 29% · 27% · 43% | Win in line with xG for Notts County |
| Milton Keynes Dons 1–1 Cambridge United | 1.06–2.06 | 19% · 21% · 60% | Draw against the xG: Cambridge United had 60% |
| Tranmere 1–4 Crewe | 0.68–1.63 | 15% · 24% · 60% | Win in line with xG for Crewe |
| Walsall 1–1 Shrewsbury | 0.67–0.83 | 27% · 37% · 36% | Draw in line with xG |
| Newport County 0–2 Fleetwood Town | 1.82–1.78 | 40% · 22% · 38% | Close call, Fleetwood Town won |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.