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12 of 12 matches with xG: 31 goals from 34.4 xG (0.90 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Barrow 1–2 Cheltenham | 0.97–1.48 | 25% · 26% · 49% | Win in line with xG for Cheltenham |
| Cambridge United 2–0 Accrington ST | 1.31–0.69 | 52% · 29% · 20% | Win in line with xG for Cambridge United |
| Crewe 1–1 Bristol Rovers | 0.86–2.00 | 15% · 21% · 64% | Draw against the xG: Bristol Rovers had 64% |
| Bromley 2–0 Grimsby | 1.63–2.04 | 31% · 21% · 48% | Close call, Bromley won |
| Notts County 0–0 Walsall | 1.84–0.64 | 66% · 22% · 12% | Draw against the xG: Notts County had 66% |
| Barnet 1–3 Salford City | 2.96–2.38 | 51% · 17% · 32% | Close call, Salford City won |
| Fleetwood Town 2–1 Gillingham | 2.56–0.79 | 76% · 15% · 9% | Win in line with xG for Fleetwood Town |
| Harrogate Town 0–4 Milton Keynes Dons | 0.34–2.44 | 4% · 13% · 84% | Win in line with xG for Milton Keynes Dons |
| Oldham 3–1 Tranmere | 1.51–2.01 | 29% · 22% · 49% | Won against the xG: Oldham |
| Shrewsbury 0–1 Chesterfield | 0.42–0.69 | 20% · 43% · 37% | Close call, Chesterfield won |
| Swindon Town 1–0 Crawley Town | 0.93–1.30 | 27% · 28% · 45% | Won against the xG: Swindon Town |
| Colchester 4–1 Newport County | 1.85–0.79 | 63% · 22% · 15% | Win in line with xG for Colchester |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.