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11 of 12 matches with xG: 21 goals from 32.8 xG (0.64 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Accrington ST 2–1 Barrow | 2.59–1.71 | 57% · 18% · 25% | Win in line with xG for Accrington ST |
| Bristol Rovers 2–3 Bromley | 0.93–2.36 | 13% · 18% · 69% | Win in line with xG for Bromley |
| Cheltenham 3–1 Shrewsbury | 2.21–0.75 | 71% · 18% · 11% | Win in line with xG for Cheltenham |
| Chesterfield 2–0 Notts County | 1.37–0.30 | 65% · 27% · 8% | Win in line with xG for Chesterfield |
| Crawley Town 1–1 Colchester | 1.18–0.91 | 42% · 30% · 28% | Draw in line with xG |
| Gillingham 1–1 Cambridge United | 2.43–0.99 | 69% · 17% · 14% | Draw against the xG: Gillingham had 69% |
| Grimsby 0–0 Oldham | 1.19–1.60 | 28% · 25% · 47% | Draw in line with xG |
| Salford City 1–0 Harrogate Town | 4.02–0.60 | 93% · 5% · 2% | Win in line with xG for Salford City |
| Tranmere 1–0 Fleetwood Town | 2.26–1.82 | 48% · 20% · 32% | Win in line with xG for Tranmere |
| Walsall 1–0 Crewe | 2.15–0.16 | 84% · 14% · 2% | Win in line with xG for Walsall |
| Newport County 0–0 Barnet | 0.65–0.58 | 32% · 41% · 27% | Draw in line with xG |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.