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12 of 12 matches with xG: 24 goals from 32.8 xG (0.73 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newport County 2–0 Crewe | 2.54–1.62 | 58% · 19% · 24% | Win in line with xG for Newport County |
| Accrington ST 1–0 Harrogate Town | 2.52–0.68 | 77% · 15% · 8% | Win in line with xG for Accrington ST |
| Bristol Rovers 0–2 Barnet | 0.40–1.96 | 7% · 18% · 75% | Win in line with xG for Barnet |
| Cheltenham 0–2 Swindon Town | 0.31–1.33 | 9% · 28% · 63% | Win in line with xG for Swindon Town |
| Chesterfield 0–1 Cambridge United | 1.17–0.54 | 51% · 31% · 17% | Won against the xG: Cambridge United |
| Crawley Town 1–3 Bromley | 0.59–1.34 | 16% · 28% · 55% | Win in line with xG for Bromley |
| Gillingham 1–1 Colchester | 1.66–1.63 | 39% · 23% · 38% | Draw in line with xG |
| Grimsby 1–0 Shrewsbury | 0.87–0.49 | 43% · 38% · 20% | Win in line with xG for Grimsby |
| Milton Keynes Dons 1–1 Notts County | 1.93–0.47 | 73% · 19% · 8% | Draw against the xG: Milton Keynes Dons had 73% |
| Salford City 0–0 Fleetwood Town | 2.05–0.99 | 62% · 21% · 17% | Draw against the xG: Salford City had 62% |
| Tranmere 1–3 Barrow | 2.88–2.48 | 48% · 17% · 35% | Close call, Barrow won |
| Walsall 1–2 Oldham | 0.87–1.44 | 23% · 27% · 50% | Win in line with xG for Oldham |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.