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12 of 12 matches with xG: 28 goals from 32.5 xG (0.86 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Barnet 2–1 Crawley Town | 2.41–2.94 | 33% · 17% · 50% | Close call, Barnet won |
| Barrow 1–2 Salford City | 0.92–1.32 | 26% · 28% · 46% | Win in line with xG for Salford City |
| Cambridge United 2–0 Walsall | 0.93–1.42 | 25% · 27% · 48% | Won against the xG: Cambridge United |
| Colchester 1–0 Milton Keynes Dons | 1.43–1.00 | 47% · 27% · 26% | Win in line with xG for Colchester |
| Crewe 4–1 Cheltenham | 1.70–1.29 | 47% · 24% · 29% | Win in line with xG for Crewe |
| Fleetwood Town 0–1 Grimsby | 0.38–1.19 | 12% · 31% · 57% | Win in line with xG for Grimsby |
| Harrogate Town 0–2 Tranmere | 0.88–1.99 | 16% · 21% · 63% | Win in line with xG for Tranmere |
| Notts County 0–1 Accrington ST | 0.97–0.33 | 51% · 37% · 12% | Won against the xG: Accrington ST |
| Oldham 1–1 Chesterfield | 2.56–0.60 | 80% · 14% · 7% | Draw against the xG: Oldham had 80% |
| Shrewsbury 0–3 Bristol Rovers | 0.49–2.05 | 8% · 18% · 74% | Win in line with xG for Bristol Rovers |
| Swindon Town 2–0 Gillingham | 0.72–1.58 | 17% · 25% · 58% | Won against the xG: Swindon Town |
| Bromley 2–1 Newport County | 2.51–0.89 | 73% · 16% · 11% | Win in line with xG for Bromley |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.