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9 of 12 matches with xG: 25 goals from 25.3 xG (0.99 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chesterfield 0–0 Bromley | 1.15–1.72 | 25% · 24% · 51% | Draw against the xG: Bromley had 51% |
| Tranmere 1–3 Walsall | 0.71–1.35 | 20% · 28% · 52% | Win in line with xG for Walsall |
| Accrington ST 0–2 Milton Keynes Dons | 0.42–0.78 | 18% · 41% · 41% | Win in line with xG for Milton Keynes Dons |
| Bristol Rovers 0–1 Colchester | 0.67–0.87 | 26% · 36% · 38% | Win in line with xG for Colchester |
| Crewe 3–1 Barrow | 1.42–1.91 | 29% · 22% · 49% | Won against the xG: Crewe |
| Oldham 2–1 Cheltenham | 1.03–1.51 | 26% · 26% · 48% | Won against the xG: Oldham |
| Shrewsbury 1–0 Harrogate Town | 1.71–0.56 | 65% · 23% · 12% | Win in line with xG for Shrewsbury |
| Swindon Town 2–3 Salford City | 2.56–1.55 | 59% · 18% · 22% | Won against the xG: Salford City |
| Gillingham 3–2 Newport County | 3.90–1.48 | 80% · 11% · 10% | Win in line with xG for Gillingham |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.