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12 of 12 matches with xG: 34 goals from 28.8 xG (1.18 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Barnet 3–2 Oldham | 1.48–1.50 | 37% · 24% · 38% | Close call, Barnet won |
| Notts County 1–0 Crewe | 1.96–0.66 | 68% · 20% · 12% | Win in line with xG for Notts County |
| Barrow 0–1 Crawley Town | 0.90–0.90 | 34% · 33% · 34% | Close call, Crawley Town won |
| Bromley 2–1 Swindon Town | 2.34–2.01 | 46% · 20% · 34% | Win in line with xG for Bromley |
| Cambridge United 4–2 Tranmere | 1.69–0.85 | 57% · 24% · 19% | Win in line with xG for Cambridge United |
| Cheltenham 0–2 Grimsby | 0.97–1.18 | 30% · 29% · 41% | Win in line with xG for Grimsby |
| Colchester 2–1 Fleetwood Town | 0.71–0.83 | 28% · 36% · 35% | Close call, Colchester won |
| Harrogate Town 0–3 Gillingham | 0.64–1.82 | 12% · 22% · 66% | Win in line with xG for Gillingham |
| Milton Keynes Dons 5–1 Shrewsbury | 2.95–0.44 | 87% · 9% · 3% | Win in line with xG for Milton Keynes Dons |
| Salford City 1–0 Bristol Rovers | 1.43–0.21 | 69% · 26% · 5% | Win in line with xG for Salford City |
| Walsall 0–0 Accrington ST | 1.05–0.62 | 45% · 33% · 21% | Draw in line with xG |
| Newport County 2–1 Chesterfield | 0.94–0.75 | 38% · 34% · 28% | Win in line with xG for Newport County |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.