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5 of 12 matches with xG: 8 goals from 13.7 xG (0.59 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Milton Keynes Dons 1–0 Bristol Rovers | 2.11–0.97 | 64% · 20% · 16% | Win in line with xG for Milton Keynes Dons |
| Notts County 2–1 Swindon Town | 2.17–0.89 | 67% · 19% · 14% | Win in line with xG for Notts County |
| Salford City 0–1 Chesterfield | 2.05–0.29 | 79% · 16% · 4% | Won against the xG: Chesterfield |
| Walsall 0–0 Crawley Town | 0.52–1.55 | 12% · 25% · 63% | Draw against the xG: Crawley Town had 63% |
| Cheltenham 2–1 Gillingham | 0.81–2.31 | 11% · 17% · 71% | Won against the xG: Cheltenham |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.