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12 of 12 matches with xG: 35 goals from 31.5 xG (1.11 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Grimsby 2–2 Milton Keynes Dons | 1.32–1.25 | 38% · 27% · 35% | Draw in line with xG |
| Bristol Rovers 3–0 Newport County | 1.00–0.46 | 48% · 35% · 17% | Win in line with xG for Bristol Rovers |
| Accrington ST 3–1 Cheltenham | 0.67–1.20 | 21% · 31% · 49% | Won against the xG: Accrington ST |
| Chesterfield 2–2 Walsall | 1.52–1.98 | 30% · 22% · 49% | Draw in line with xG |
| Crawley Town 2–0 Harrogate Town | 1.86–1.05 | 56% · 23% · 21% | Win in line with xG for Crawley Town |
| Crewe 1–0 Colchester | 0.36–1.11 | 12% · 33% · 55% | Won against the xG: Crewe |
| Fleetwood Town 1–2 Notts County | 0.53–1.53 | 13% · 25% · 62% | Win in line with xG for Notts County |
| Gillingham 1–4 Bromley | 2.15–1.78 | 47% · 21% · 33% | Close call, Bromley won |
| Oldham 0–3 Cambridge United | 0.33–2.19 | 4% · 15% · 81% | Win in line with xG for Cambridge United |
| Shrewsbury 0–0 Barnet | 0.65–1.60 | 15% · 25% · 60% | Draw against the xG: Barnet had 60% |
| Swindon Town 3–1 Barrow | 2.38–1.80 | 51% · 20% · 29% | Win in line with xG for Swindon Town |
| Tranmere 0–2 Salford City | 1.42–1.36 | 39% · 25% · 36% | Close call, Salford City won |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.