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10 of 12 matches with xG: 31 goals from 26.9 xG (1.15 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Swindon Town 3–0 Oldham | 1.73–1.61 | 41% · 23% · 36% | Win in line with xG for Swindon Town |
| Bristol Rovers 2–3 Chesterfield | 1.12–2.10 | 20% · 21% · 60% | Win in line with xG for Chesterfield |
| Cheltenham 2–3 Milton Keynes Dons | 0.44–2.16 | 6% · 16% · 77% | Win in line with xG for Milton Keynes Dons |
| Colchester 2–0 Shrewsbury | 0.41–1.01 | 15% · 35% · 50% | Won against the xG: Colchester |
| Fleetwood Town 1–2 Bromley | 1.48–0.71 | 56% · 26% · 18% | Won against the xG: Bromley |
| Gillingham 2–1 Tranmere | 1.27–1.46 | 33% · 26% · 42% | Close call, Gillingham won |
| Harrogate Town 2–1 Cambridge United | 1.60–1.30 | 44% · 24% · 31% | Win in line with xG for Harrogate Town |
| Notts County 2–1 Barrow | 1.79–0.38 | 72% · 21% · 7% | Win in line with xG for Notts County |
| Walsall 1–3 Barnet | 1.22–2.08 | 22% · 21% · 57% | Win in line with xG for Barnet |
| Newport County 0–0 Grimsby | 1.18–1.87 | 24% · 23% · 53% | Draw against the xG: Grimsby had 53% |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.