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10 of 12 matches with xG: 19 goals from 28.3 xG (0.67 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Barnet 0–0 Cheltenham | 1.22–0.21 | 63% · 30% · 6% | Draw against the xG: Barnet had 63% |
| Barrow 1–0 Colchester | 0.70–0.63 | 32% · 39% · 28% | Close call, Barrow won |
| Bromley 1–1 Notts County | 0.75–1.38 | 20% · 28% · 52% | Draw against the xG: Notts County had 52% |
| Cambridge United 3–1 Bristol Rovers | 1.71–1.25 | 48% · 24% · 28% | Win in line with xG for Cambridge United |
| Chesterfield 1–1 Harrogate Town | 2.73–1.03 | 73% · 15% · 12% | Draw against the xG: Chesterfield had 73% |
| Crewe 1–0 Gillingham | 1.05–2.32 | 16% · 19% · 66% | Won against the xG: Crewe |
| Oldham 1–1 Fleetwood Town | 0.98–1.80 | 20% · 23% · 57% | Draw against the xG: Fleetwood Town had 57% |
| Shrewsbury 3–1 Swindon Town | 2.93–1.68 | 63% · 16% · 20% | Win in line with xG for Shrewsbury |
| Tranmere 2–0 Crawley Town | 1.56–1.42 | 41% · 24% · 35% | Win in line with xG for Tranmere |
| Milton Keynes Dons 1–0 Newport County | 2.19–0.78 | 70% · 18% · 12% | Win in line with xG for Milton Keynes Dons |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.