League Two 2025/2026 xG Round-Up: Matchday 33

Matchday 33 in xG

1 of 12 matches with xG: 4 goals from 3.2 xG (1.27 goals per xG).

• Most xG without a win: Grimsby 2–2 Walsall (xG 2.37–0.78). Draw against the xG: Grimsby had 73% to win on xG.
• Most xG: Grimsby 2–2 Walsall (xG 2.37–0.78). 3.15 xG in all.
• Most one-sided: Grimsby 2–2 Walsall (xG 2.37–0.78). An xG gap of 1.59.
• Most goals above xG: Walsall, +1.22 goals above xG.
• Most goals below xG: Grimsby, -0.37 goals below xG.

Every match

Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.

More matchdays

Matchday 32 · Matchday 34