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12 of 12 matches with xG: 38 goals from 31.0 xG (1.22 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fleetwood Town 3–2 Barrow | 1.55–1.01 | 50% · 25% · 25% | Win in line with xG for Fleetwood Town |
| Swindon Town 1–2 Crewe | 1.19–0.86 | 44% · 30% · 27% | Won against the xG: Crewe |
| Accrington ST 0–2 Shrewsbury | 0.72–0.47 | 37% · 42% · 21% | Won against the xG: Shrewsbury |
| Bristol Rovers 3–1 Grimsby | 2.50–1.39 | 62% · 18% · 20% | Win in line with xG for Bristol Rovers |
| Cheltenham 3–2 Salford City | 1.30–0.69 | 51% · 29% · 20% | Win in line with xG for Cheltenham |
| Colchester 4–1 Barnet | 2.63–1.31 | 66% · 17% · 17% | Win in line with xG for Colchester |
| Crawley Town 1–1 Chesterfield | 1.67–1.84 | 35% · 22% · 42% | Draw in line with xG |
| Gillingham 0–3 Oldham | 0.99–2.10 | 17% · 20% · 63% | Win in line with xG for Oldham |
| Harrogate Town 0–0 Bromley | 2.28–0.65 | 74% · 17% · 9% | Draw against the xG: Harrogate Town had 74% |
| Notts County 5–0 Tranmere | 2.75–0.30 | 88% · 10% · 2% | Win in line with xG for Notts County |
| Newport County 0–2 Cambridge United | 0.46–1.32 | 13% · 29% · 58% | Win in line with xG for Cambridge United |
| Walsall 0–2 Milton Keynes Dons | 0.47–0.60 | 23% · 45% · 32% | Close call, Milton Keynes Dons won |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.