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11 of 12 matches with xG: 19 goals from 28.1 xG (0.67 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cambridge United 1–1 Milton Keynes Dons | 1.63–1.59 | 39% · 23% · 37% | Draw in line with xG |
| Shrewsbury 1–2 Walsall | 0.58–1.42 | 15% · 27% · 58% | Win in line with xG for Walsall |
| Swindon Town 1–1 Bristol Rovers | 1.94–0.68 | 67% · 21% · 12% | Draw against the xG: Swindon Town had 67% |
| Barnet 1–0 Chesterfield | 1.97–1.19 | 55% · 22% · 23% | Win in line with xG for Barnet |
| Barrow 0–1 Gillingham | 0.22–1.08 | 8% · 34% · 58% | Win in line with xG for Gillingham |
| Bromley 2–1 Accrington ST | 3.59–0.45 | 92% · 6% · 2% | Win in line with xG for Bromley |
| Colchester 0–1 Salford City | 0.76–1.07 | 26% · 32% · 42% | Win in line with xG for Salford City |
| Crewe 2–1 Tranmere | 1.16–0.95 | 41% · 30% · 30% | Win in line with xG for Crewe |
| Notts County 0–1 Grimsby | 0.82–0.59 | 38% · 38% · 24% | Close call, Grimsby won |
| Oldham 2–0 Crawley Town | 2.98–0.96 | 78% · 13% · 9% | Win in line with xG for Oldham |
| Fleetwood Town 0–0 Newport County | 2.23–0.29 | 82% · 14% · 4% | Draw against the xG: Fleetwood Town had 82% |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.