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12 of 12 matches with xG: 39 goals from 34.3 xG (1.14 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheltenham 2–2 Barrow | 1.85–2.66 | 26% · 18% · 55% | Draw against the xG: Barrow had 55% |
| Grimsby 1–1 Bromley | 2.41–0.64 | 77% · 15% · 8% | Draw against the xG: Grimsby had 77% |
| Salford City 2–0 Barnet | 1.57–0.32 | 69% · 24% · 7% | Win in line with xG for Salford City |
| Accrington ST 1–1 Cambridge United | 0.57–1.41 | 15% · 27% · 58% | Draw against the xG: Cambridge United had 58% |
| Bristol Rovers 2–1 Crewe | 0.94–1.64 | 22% · 25% · 54% | Won against the xG: Bristol Rovers |
| Chesterfield 2–3 Shrewsbury | 2.27–1.86 | 48% · 20% · 32% | Close call, Shrewsbury won |
| Crawley Town 2–2 Swindon Town | 1.86–2.27 | 32% · 20% · 48% | Draw in line with xG |
| Gillingham 1–1 Fleetwood Town | 0.71–1.48 | 18% · 26% · 56% | Draw against the xG: Fleetwood Town had 56% |
| Milton Keynes Dons 4–1 Harrogate Town | 2.02–0.99 | 61% · 21% · 18% | Win in line with xG for Milton Keynes Dons |
| Tranmere 1–3 Oldham | 0.49–1.32 | 14% · 29% · 57% | Win in line with xG for Oldham |
| Walsall 1–2 Notts County | 0.67–0.54 | 33% · 42% · 25% | Close call, Notts County won |
| Newport County 1–2 Colchester | 1.30–2.54 | 18% · 18% · 64% | Win in line with xG for Colchester |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.