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10 of 12 matches with xG: 17 goals from 26.1 xG (0.65 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colchester 0–0 Crawley Town | 0.84–0.76 | 35% · 35% · 30% | Draw in line with xG |
| Harrogate Town 0–1 Salford City | 0.59–1.07 | 20% · 33% · 47% | Win in line with xG for Salford City |
| Barrow 0–0 Accrington ST | 0.41–0.48 | 23% · 50% · 28% | Draw in line with xG |
| Bromley 1–0 Bristol Rovers | 0.95–1.29 | 27% · 28% · 44% | Won against the xG: Bromley |
| Cambridge United 5–0 Gillingham | 4.35–0.17 | 98% · 2% · 0% | Win in line with xG for Cambridge United |
| Crewe 0–3 Walsall | 0.35–3.64 | 1% · 5% · 94% | Win in line with xG for Walsall |
| Fleetwood Town 0–0 Tranmere | 2.53–0.25 | 87% · 11% · 2% | Draw against the xG: Fleetwood Town had 87% |
| Oldham 1–0 Grimsby | 0.90–0.95 | 32% · 32% · 35% | Close call, Oldham won |
| Swindon Town 1–2 Milton Keynes Dons | 1.68–1.45 | 43% · 24% · 33% | Close call, Milton Keynes Dons won |
| Barnet 1–2 Newport County | 1.87–1.60 | 44% · 22% · 33% | Close call, Newport County won |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.