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11 of 12 matches with xG: 22 goals from 23.3 xG (0.95 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newport County 0–1 Bromley | 1.13–0.42 | 54% · 33% · 14% | Won against the xG: Bromley |
| Accrington ST 0–4 Notts County | 0.67–2.40 | 9% · 16% · 76% | Win in line with xG for Notts County |
| Bristol Rovers 1–0 Shrewsbury | 0.23–0.49 | 13% · 54% · 32% | Won against the xG: Bristol Rovers |
| Cheltenham 1–1 Crewe | 1.17–0.88 | 43% · 30% · 28% | Draw in line with xG |
| Chesterfield 0–3 Oldham | 0.57–1.85 | 11% · 21% · 68% | Win in line with xG for Oldham |
| Gillingham 0–2 Swindon Town | 1.31–0.31 | 63% · 29% · 9% | Won against the xG: Swindon Town |
| Grimsby 1–0 Fleetwood Town | 2.80–0.51 | 85% · 11% · 4% | Win in line with xG for Grimsby |
| Salford City 3–1 Barrow | 1.16–1.44 | 30% · 26% · 43% | Close call, Salford City won |
| Tranmere 0–3 Harrogate Town | 0.41–1.20 | 13% · 31% · 56% | Win in line with xG for Harrogate Town |
| Walsall 0–0 Cambridge United | 0.85–0.54 | 40% · 38% · 22% | Draw in line with xG |
| Milton Keynes Dons 1–0 Colchester | 2.22–0.71 | 72% · 18% · 10% | Win in line with xG for Milton Keynes Dons |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.