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11 of 12 matches with xG: 28 goals from 31.6 xG (0.89 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cambridge United 1–0 Salford City | 1.07–0.66 | 45% · 33% · 22% | Win in line with xG for Cambridge United |
| Milton Keynes Dons 1–3 Barnet | 2.16–1.07 | 62% · 20% · 18% | Won against the xG: Barnet |
| Accrington ST 0–1 Chesterfield | 0.92–2.87 | 9% · 14% · 77% | Win in line with xG for Chesterfield |
| Bromley 1–0 Colchester | 3.30–1.60 | 70% · 14% · 15% | Win in line with xG for Bromley |
| Fleetwood Town 1–0 Crawley Town | 1.74–0.25 | 75% · 20% · 5% | Win in line with xG for Fleetwood Town |
| Gillingham 1–2 Bristol Rovers | 1.06–2.52 | 14% · 17% · 69% | Win in line with xG for Bristol Rovers |
| Grimsby 5–0 Barrow | 2.27–0.28 | 83% · 14% · 3% | Win in line with xG for Grimsby |
| Notts County 5–2 Cheltenham | 1.81–0.64 | 66% · 22% · 13% | Win in line with xG for Notts County |
| Oldham 1–0 Harrogate Town | 1.31–1.22 | 39% · 27% · 34% | Win in line with xG for Oldham |
| Tranmere 0–1 Swindon Town | 0.87–1.30 | 25% · 28% · 47% | Win in line with xG for Swindon Town |
| Walsall 2–1 Newport County | 1.58–1.12 | 48% · 25% · 27% | Win in line with xG for Walsall |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.