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11 of 12 matches with xG: 22 goals from 20.1 xG (1.09 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Harrogate Town 0–2 Notts County | 0.17–1.80 | 3% · 19% · 78% | Win in line with xG for Notts County |
| Barnet 1–0 Cambridge United | 0.36–0.18 | 26% · 62% · 12% | Close call, Barnet won |
| Barrow 2–1 Bromley | 1.54–0.75 | 56% · 26% · 18% | Win in line with xG for Barrow |
| Bristol Rovers 2–0 Accrington ST | 0.92–0.24 | 52% · 39% · 9% | Win in line with xG for Bristol Rovers |
| Colchester 1–1 Walsall | 1.74–1.74 | 39% · 22% · 39% | Draw in line with xG |
| Crawley Town 2–0 Gillingham | 0.93–0.78 | 37% · 34% · 29% | Win in line with xG for Crawley Town |
| Crewe 2–1 Oldham | 1.30–1.67 | 30% · 24% · 46% | Won against the xG: Crewe |
| Salford City 1–0 Milton Keynes Dons | 0.73–0.48 | 37% · 41% · 22% | Close call, Salford City won |
| Swindon Town 1–1 Fleetwood Town | 1.26–0.59 | 53% · 30% · 17% | Draw against the xG: Swindon Town had 53% |
| Newport County 1–0 Shrewsbury | 0.46–0.09 | 34% · 60% · 6% | Close call, Newport County won |
| Chesterfield 2–1 Grimsby | 1.32–1.07 | 42% · 27% · 30% | Win in line with xG for Chesterfield |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.