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11 of 12 matches with xG: 26 goals from 36.3 xG (0.72 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oldham 2–0 Port Vale | 1.49–0.93 | 50% · 26% · 24% | Win in line with xG for Oldham |
| Accrington ST 2–2 Colchester | 3.02–0.45 | 88% · 9% · 3% | Draw against the xG: Accrington ST had 88% |
| Barnet 3–1 Salford City | 2.75–1.79 | 58% · 18% · 24% | Win in line with xG for Barnet |
| Cheltenham 2–1 Rotherham | 0.71–2.18 | 11% · 18% · 71% | Won against the xG: Cheltenham |
| Chesterfield 0–1 Fleetwood Town | 1.53–1.94 | 31% · 22% · 47% | Win in line with xG for Fleetwood Town |
| Crawley Town 0–1 Crewe | 0.76–1.73 | 16% · 23% · 61% | Win in line with xG for Crewe |
| Gillingham 0–3 Walsall | 1.77–3.45 | 16% · 14% · 70% | Win in line with xG for Walsall |
| Grimsby 1–0 Exeter City | 1.89–1.11 | 56% · 22% · 22% | Win in line with xG for Grimsby |
| Northampton 0–0 Swindon Town | 1.61–0.27 | 72% · 23% · 6% | Draw against the xG: Northampton had 72% |
| Tranmere 2–0 Shrewsbury | 1.23–2.06 | 22% · 21% · 57% | Won against the xG: Tranmere |
| York 3–2 Bristol Rovers | 1.62–2.02 | 31% · 21% · 47% | Close call, York won |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.