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11 of 12 matches with xG: 28 goals from 30.1 xG (0.93 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bristol Rovers 5–3 Newport County | 3.25–0.71 | 86% · 10% · 5% | Win in line with xG for Bristol Rovers |
| Walsall 0–0 Grimsby | 1.28–1.47 | 33% · 25% · 42% | Draw in line with xG |
| Colchester 2–1 Oldham | 2.31–0.54 | 77% · 16% · 7% | Win in line with xG for Colchester |
| Crewe 1–0 Northampton | 1.04–0.83 | 40% · 32% · 28% | Win in line with xG for Crewe |
| Exeter City 2–0 Accrington ST | 2.27–0.29 | 83% · 14% · 4% | Win in line with xG for Exeter City |
| Fleetwood Town 0–0 Gillingham | 1.40–1.02 | 46% · 27% · 27% | Draw in line with xG |
| Port Vale 1–1 Tranmere | 2.00–0.86 | 64% · 21% · 15% | Draw against the xG: Port Vale had 64% |
| Rochdale 1–2 Crawley Town | 0.93–2.60 | 11% · 16% · 73% | Win in line with xG for Crawley Town |
| Rotherham 1–1 York | 0.83–2.23 | 13% · 18% · 69% | Draw against the xG: York had 69% |
| Shrewsbury 1–3 Barnet | 1.50–0.90 | 51% · 26% · 23% | Won against the xG: Barnet |
| Swindon Town 2–1 Cheltenham | 0.63–1.20 | 19% · 31% · 50% | Won against the xG: Swindon Town |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.