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12 of 12 matches with xG: 32 goals from 38.6 xG (0.83 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Barnet 2–2 Cheltenham | 1.99–1.37 | 52% · 22% · 26% | Draw against the xG: Barnet had 52% |
| Port Vale 0–0 Crewe | 1.42–1.38 | 38% · 25% · 36% | Draw in line with xG |
| Rotherham 2–1 Chesterfield | 2.14–1.17 | 60% · 20% · 20% | Win in line with xG for Rotherham |
| Colchester 1–0 Rochdale | 1.29–1.20 | 39% · 27% · 34% | Win in line with xG for Colchester |
| Crawley Town 0–2 Bristol Rovers | 0.85–4.36 | 3% · 5% · 92% | Win in line with xG for Bristol Rovers |
| Gillingham 1–1 Northampton | 0.64–0.34 | 37% · 46% · 17% | Draw in line with xG |
| Grimsby 2–2 Fleetwood Town | 2.80–1.39 | 67% · 16% · 17% | Draw against the xG: Grimsby had 67% |
| Newport County 2–2 Tranmere | 0.94–1.50 | 24% · 26% · 50% | Draw against the xG: Tranmere had 50% |
| Oldham 3–0 Swindon Town | 2.90–0.22 | 91% · 8% · 1% | Win in line with xG for Oldham |
| Shrewsbury 1–0 Salford City | 1.71–0.93 | 56% · 24% · 20% | Win in line with xG for Shrewsbury |
| Walsall 3–2 Accrington ST | 3.23–2.69 | 50% · 16% · 33% | Win in line with xG for Walsall |
| York 2–1 Exeter City | 0.97–1.22 | 29% · 29% · 42% | Close call, York won |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.