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10 of 10 matches with xG: 34 goals from 32.5 xG (1.05 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City 1–1 Liverpool | 1.36–0.56 | 57% · 28% · 15% | Draw against the xG: Manchester City had 57% |
| Burnley 1–2 West Ham | 1.26–0.90 | 45% · 29% · 27% | Won against the xG: West Ham |
| Luton 2–1 Crystal Palace | 0.94–1.67 | 21% · 24% · 55% | Won against the xG: Luton |
| Newcastle 4–1 Chelsea | 2.36–0.53 | 78% · 15% · 7% | Win in line with xG for Newcastle |
| Nottingham Forest 2–3 Brighton | 1.93–1.48 | 48% · 22% · 30% | Won against the xG: Brighton |
| Sheffield Utd 1–3 Bournemouth | 0.78–2.86 | 7% · 13% · 80% | Win in line with xG for Bournemouth |
| Brentford 0–1 Arsenal | 1.19–1.65 | 28% · 24% · 48% | Win in line with xG for Arsenal |
| Tottenham 1–2 Aston Villa | 2.34–1.76 | 51% · 20% · 29% | Won against the xG: Aston Villa |
| Everton 0–3 Manchester United | 2.47–2.22 | 45% · 19% · 36% | Close call, Manchester United won |
| Fulham 3–2 Wolves | 2.90–1.35 | 69% · 16% · 15% | Win in line with xG for Fulham |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.