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10 of 10 matches with xG: 38 goals from 28.4 xG (1.34 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal 2–1 Wolves | 2.89–0.71 | 82% · 12% · 6% | Win in line with xG for Arsenal |
| Brentford 3–1 Luton | 3.47–0.23 | 94% · 5% · 1% | Win in line with xG for Brentford |
| Burnley 5–0 Sheffield Utd | 1.81–0.39 | 72% · 20% · 7% | Win in line with xG for Burnley |
| Nottingham Forest 0–1 Everton | 0.72–0.67 | 32% · 38% · 29% | Close call, Everton won |
| Newcastle 1–0 Manchester United | 2.50–0.48 | 82% · 13% · 5% | Win in line with xG for Newcastle |
| Bournemouth 2–2 Aston Villa | 2.02–0.68 | 69% · 20% · 11% | Draw against the xG: Bournemouth had 69% |
| Chelsea 3–2 Brighton | 2.11–1.14 | 60% · 21% · 20% | Win in line with xG for Chelsea |
| Liverpool 4–3 Fulham | 2.23–1.21 | 60% · 20% · 20% | Win in line with xG for Liverpool |
| West Ham 1–1 Crystal Palace | 1.13–0.93 | 40% · 30% · 30% | Draw in line with xG |
| Manchester City 3–3 Tottenham | 2.57–0.46 | 83% · 12% · 5% | Draw against the xG: Manchester City had 83% |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.