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10 of 10 matches with xG: 30 goals from 33.6 xG (0.89 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wolves 1–0 Burnley | 0.83–0.87 | 32% · 34% · 34% | Close call, Wolves won |
| Luton 3–4 Arsenal | 0.51–2.26 | 7% · 16% · 77% | Win in line with xG for Arsenal |
| Brighton 2–1 Brentford | 1.57–1.52 | 39% · 24% · 37% | Win in line with xG for Brighton |
| Fulham 5–0 Nottingham Forest | 2.52–0.26 | 87% · 11% · 2% | Win in line with xG for Fulham |
| Sheffield Utd 0–2 Liverpool | 0.99–1.69 | 22% · 24% · 54% | Win in line with xG for Liverpool |
| Crystal Palace 0–2 Bournemouth | 1.01–1.90 | 20% · 22% · 58% | Win in line with xG for Bournemouth |
| Aston Villa 1–0 Manchester City | 2.38–0.65 | 76% · 16% · 8% | Win in line with xG for Aston Villa |
| Manchester United 2–1 Chelsea | 4.17–1.52 | 82% · 10% · 9% | Win in line with xG for Manchester United |
| Everton 3–0 Newcastle | 3.36–1.57 | 72% · 14% · 14% | Win in line with xG for Everton |
| Tottenham 1–2 West Ham | 1.79–2.23 | 31% · 20% · 48% | Win in line with xG for West Ham |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.