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10 of 10 matches with xG: 23 goals from 24.8 xG (0.93 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace 1–1 Brighton | 1.35–1.19 | 40% · 27% · 33% | Draw in line with xG |
| Aston Villa 1–1 Sheffield Utd | 0.86–0.58 | 40% · 37% · 23% | Draw in line with xG |
| West Ham 2–0 Manchester United | 1.25–1.03 | 41% · 28% · 30% | Win in line with xG for West Ham |
| Fulham 0–2 Burnley | 1.42–0.37 | 64% · 27% · 9% | Won against the xG: Burnley |
| Luton 1–0 Newcastle | 1.49–1.50 | 38% · 24% · 38% | Close call, Luton won |
| Nottingham Forest 2–3 Bournemouth | 1.02–1.61 | 24% · 25% · 51% | Win in line with xG for Bournemouth |
| Tottenham 2–1 Everton | 1.48–1.78 | 32% · 23% · 45% | Close call, Tottenham won |
| Liverpool 1–1 Arsenal | 0.97–0.74 | 40% · 34% · 27% | Draw in line with xG |
| Wolves 2–1 Chelsea | 1.27–2.06 | 23% · 21% · 56% | Won against the xG: Wolves |
| Manchester City 1–0 Brentford | 2.45–0.35 | 84% · 13% · 4% | Win in line with xG for Manchester City |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.