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10 of 10 matches with xG: 35 goals from 34.9 xG (1.00 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Luton 2–3 Chelsea | 2.53–1.50 | 60% · 18% · 22% | Won against the xG: Chelsea |
| Aston Villa 3–2 Burnley | 3.23–1.17 | 77% · 13% · 10% | Win in line with xG for Aston Villa |
| Crystal Palace 3–1 Brentford | 0.98–1.39 | 27% · 27% · 46% | Won against the xG: Crystal Palace |
| Manchester City 2–0 Sheffield Utd | 2.21–0.31 | 81% · 15% · 4% | Win in line with xG for Manchester City |
| Wolves 3–0 Everton | 1.99–0.46 | 74% · 19% · 8% | Win in line with xG for Wolves |
| Nottingham Forest 2–1 Manchester United | 0.70–0.76 | 30% · 37% · 33% | Close call, Nottingham Forest won |
| Fulham 2–1 Arsenal | 1.22–1.64 | 28% · 24% · 47% | Won against the xG: Fulham |
| Tottenham 3–1 Bournemouth | 2.32–1.68 | 52% · 20% · 28% | Win in line with xG for Tottenham |
| Liverpool 4–2 Newcastle | 7.11–0.60 | 99% · 1% · 0% | Win in line with xG for Liverpool |
| West Ham 0–0 Brighton | 0.68–2.38 | 9% · 16% · 75% | Draw against the xG: Brighton had 75% |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.