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10 of 10 matches with xG: 30 goals from 29.8 xG (1.01 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley 1–1 Luton | 1.10–0.95 | 39% · 30% · 31% | Draw in line with xG |
| Chelsea 1–0 Fulham | 2.19–0.86 | 68% · 19% · 13% | Win in line with xG for Chelsea |
| Newcastle 2–3 Manchester City | 1.30–3.00 | 14% · 15% · 72% | Win in line with xG for Manchester City |
| Everton 0–0 Aston Villa | 1.20–1.26 | 35% · 27% · 38% | Draw in line with xG |
| Manchester United 2–2 Tottenham | 0.75–1.23 | 23% · 30% · 48% | Draw in line with xG |
| Arsenal 5–0 Crystal Palace | 3.21–0.35 | 91% · 7% · 2% | Win in line with xG for Arsenal |
| Brentford 3–2 Nottingham Forest | 1.20–1.22 | 36% · 28% · 37% | Close call, Brentford won |
| Sheffield Utd 2–2 West Ham | 2.51–2.34 | 44% · 19% · 38% | Draw in line with xG |
| Bournemouth 0–4 Liverpool | 1.37–1.57 | 33% · 24% · 42% | Win in line with xG for Liverpool |
| Brighton 0–0 Wolves | 1.05–1.15 | 33% · 29% · 38% | Draw in line with xG |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.