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10 of 10 matches with xG: 39 goals from 35.2 xG (1.11 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest 1–2 Arsenal | 0.46–1.32 | 13% · 29% · 58% | Win in line with xG for Arsenal |
| Fulham 0–0 Everton | 1.71–2.15 | 31% · 21% · 48% | Draw in line with xG |
| Luton 4–0 Brighton | 3.21–0.94 | 81% · 11% · 7% | Win in line with xG for Luton |
| Crystal Palace 3–2 Sheffield Utd | 1.15–0.76 | 45% · 31% · 24% | Win in line with xG for Crystal Palace |
| Aston Villa 1–3 Newcastle | 1.46–2.63 | 20% · 18% · 63% | Win in line with xG for Newcastle |
| Tottenham 3–2 Brentford | 3.01–1.59 | 66% · 16% · 18% | Win in line with xG for Tottenham |
| Manchester City 3–1 Burnley | 1.76–1.44 | 45% · 23% · 32% | Win in line with xG for Manchester City |
| Liverpool 4–1 Chelsea | 2.90–0.58 | 84% · 11% · 5% | Win in line with xG for Liverpool |
| West Ham 1–1 Bournemouth | 1.39–1.20 | 41% · 26% · 32% | Draw in line with xG |
| Wolves 3–4 Manchester United | 2.20–3.34 | 24% · 16% · 60% | Win in line with xG for Manchester United |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.