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10 of 10 matches with xG: 27 goals from 28.4 xG (0.95 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle 1–0 Arsenal | 0.53–1.05 | 18% · 34% · 48% | Won against the xG: Newcastle |
| Bournemouth 2–1 Manchester City | 2.04–1.56 | 49% · 21% · 30% | Win in line with xG for Bournemouth |
| Ipswich 1–1 Leicester | 1.00–1.55 | 24% · 25% · 50% | Draw against the xG: Leicester had 50% |
| Liverpool 2–1 Brighton | 1.65–1.01 | 52% · 25% · 23% | Win in line with xG for Liverpool |
| Nottingham Forest 3–0 West Ham | 2.17–0.13 | 85% · 13% · 2% | Win in line with xG for Nottingham Forest |
| Southampton 1–0 Everton | 0.74–1.56 | 18% · 25% · 57% | Won against the xG: Southampton |
| Wolves 2–2 Crystal Palace | 1.53–2.51 | 22% · 19% · 59% | Draw against the xG: Crystal Palace had 59% |
| Tottenham 4–1 Aston Villa | 2.44–1.86 | 51% · 19% · 30% | Win in line with xG for Tottenham |
| Manchester United 1–1 Chelsea | 1.98–1.10 | 58% · 22% · 21% | Draw against the xG: Manchester United had 58% |
| Fulham 2–1 Brentford | 1.37–0.59 | 56% · 28% · 16% | Win in line with xG for Fulham |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.