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10 of 10 matches with xG: 34 goals from 30.4 xG (1.12 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton 1–1 Southampton | 1.68–1.01 | 53% · 24% · 23% | Draw against the xG: Brighton had 53% |
| Brentford 4–1 Leicester | 2.40–1.06 | 67% · 18% · 15% | Win in line with xG for Brentford |
| Crystal Palace 1–1 Newcastle | 1.76–0.04 | 82% · 18% · 1% | Draw against the xG: Crystal Palace had 82% |
| Nottingham Forest 1–0 Ipswich | 1.68–0.59 | 64% · 23% · 13% | Win in line with xG for Nottingham Forest |
| Wolves 2–4 Bournemouth | 0.46–3.29 | 3% · 8% · 90% | Win in line with xG for Bournemouth |
| West Ham 2–5 Arsenal | 1.54–3.60 | 12% · 12% · 75% | Win in line with xG for Arsenal |
| Chelsea 3–0 Aston Villa | 1.69–1.23 | 48% · 24% · 28% | Win in line with xG for Chelsea |
| Manchester United 4–0 Everton | 1.07–0.58 | 47% · 33% · 20% | Win in line with xG for Manchester United |
| Tottenham 1–1 Fulham | 0.78–1.58 | 18% · 25% · 56% | Draw against the xG: Fulham had 56% |
| Liverpool 2–0 Manchester City | 3.57–0.84 | 86% · 9% · 5% | Win in line with xG for Liverpool |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.