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10 of 10 matches with xG: 39 goals from 29.9 xG (1.30 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa 1–0 Southampton | 2.29–0.33 | 82% · 14% · 4% | Win in line with xG for Aston Villa |
| Brentford 4–2 Newcastle | 1.23–1.48 | 31% · 26% · 43% | Close call, Brentford won |
| Crystal Palace 2–2 Manchester City | 1.34–1.45 | 35% · 25% · 40% | Draw in line with xG |
| Manchester United 2–3 Nottingham Forest | 1.60–0.83 | 56% · 25% · 19% | Won against the xG: Nottingham Forest |
| Fulham 1–1 Arsenal | 0.16–2.03 | 2% · 15% · 83% | Draw against the xG: Arsenal had 83% |
| Ipswich 1–2 Bournemouth | 1.32–3.28 | 12% · 13% · 75% | Win in line with xG for Bournemouth |
| Leicester 2–2 Brighton | 1.31–1.54 | 32% · 25% · 43% | Draw in line with xG |
| Tottenham 3–4 Chelsea | 2.90–2.83 | 43% · 17% · 40% | Close call, Chelsea won |
| West Ham 2–1 Wolves | 0.95–1.47 | 24% · 26% · 49% | Won against the xG: West Ham |
| Everton 2–2 Liverpool | 0.95–0.62 | 42% · 35% · 23% | Draw in line with xG |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.