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10 of 10 matches with xG: 32 goals from 29.0 xG (1.10 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leicester 0–2 Manchester City | 1.30–1.27 | 37% · 27% · 36% | Close call, Manchester City won |
| Crystal Palace 2–1 Southampton | 2.03–0.94 | 63% · 21% · 17% | Win in line with xG for Crystal Palace |
| Everton 0–2 Nottingham Forest | 0.89–1.48 | 23% · 26% · 51% | Win in line with xG for Nottingham Forest |
| Fulham 2–2 Bournemouth | 1.11–1.98 | 21% · 22% · 58% | Draw against the xG: Bournemouth had 58% |
| Tottenham 2–2 Wolves | 2.25–0.72 | 72% · 17% · 10% | Draw against the xG: Tottenham had 72% |
| West Ham 0–5 Liverpool | 0.36–3.15 | 2% · 7% · 90% | Win in line with xG for Liverpool |
| Aston Villa 2–2 Brighton | 1.78–1.13 | 53% · 23% · 24% | Draw against the xG: Aston Villa had 53% |
| Ipswich 2–0 Chelsea | 1.58–2.00 | 31% · 22% · 48% | Close call, Ipswich won |
| Manchester United 0–2 Newcastle | 0.90–1.92 | 17% · 22% · 61% | Win in line with xG for Newcastle |
| Brentford 1–3 Arsenal | 0.32–1.91 | 5% · 18% · 76% | Win in line with xG for Arsenal |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.