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10 of 10 matches with xG: 30 goals from 31.4 xG (0.95 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brentford 2–2 Manchester City | 2.47–2.10 | 47% · 19% · 34% | Draw in line with xG |
| West Ham 3–2 Fulham | 0.95–1.90 | 18% · 22% · 60% | Won against the xG: West Ham |
| Chelsea 2–2 Bournemouth | 2.50–1.18 | 66% · 18% · 16% | Draw against the xG: Chelsea had 66% |
| Nottingham Forest 1–1 Liverpool | 0.31–1.99 | 5% · 17% · 78% | Draw against the xG: Liverpool had 78% |
| Everton 0–1 Aston Villa | 1.14–1.21 | 34% · 28% · 38% | Win in line with xG for Aston Villa |
| Leicester 0–2 Crystal Palace | 1.70–1.82 | 36% · 22% · 41% | Win in line with xG for Crystal Palace |
| Newcastle 3–0 Wolves | 2.11–1.62 | 49% · 21% · 30% | Win in line with xG for Newcastle |
| Arsenal 2–1 Tottenham | 1.45–0.78 | 53% · 27% · 20% | Win in line with xG for Arsenal |
| Ipswich 0–2 Brighton | 0.28–0.97 | 11% · 37% · 53% | Win in line with xG for Brighton |
| Manchester United 3–1 Southampton | 3.42–1.54 | 73% · 13% · 14% | Win in line with xG for Manchester United |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.