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10 of 10 matches with xG: 29 goals from 24.7 xG (1.17 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth 5–0 Nottingham Forest | 1.69–0.98 | 54% · 24% · 22% | Win in line with xG for Bournemouth |
| Brighton 0–1 Everton | 0.73–0.85 | 29% · 36% · 36% | Win in line with xG for Everton |
| Liverpool 4–1 Ipswich | 1.98–0.48 | 73% · 19% · 8% | Win in line with xG for Liverpool |
| Southampton 1–3 Newcastle | 0.76–2.93 | 7% · 12% · 81% | Win in line with xG for Newcastle |
| Wolves 0–1 Arsenal | 0.74–1.00 | 26% · 33% · 41% | Win in line with xG for Arsenal |
| Manchester City 3–1 Chelsea | 2.50–1.80 | 53% · 19% · 28% | Win in line with xG for Manchester City |
| Crystal Palace 1–2 Brentford | 1.08–1.52 | 27% · 26% · 47% | Win in line with xG for Brentford |
| Tottenham 1–2 Leicester | 1.04–1.56 | 25% · 25% · 49% | Win in line with xG for Leicester |
| Aston Villa 1–1 West Ham | 0.85–1.31 | 24% · 28% · 47% | Draw in line with xG |
| Fulham 0–1 Manchester United | 0.67–0.25 | 41% · 47% · 12% | Won against the xG: Manchester United |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.