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10 of 10 matches with xG: 26 goals from 25.4 xG (1.02 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton 3–0 Chelsea | 1.42–0.54 | 59% · 27% · 14% | Win in line with xG for Brighton |
| Leicester 0–2 Arsenal | 0.22–1.38 | 6% · 27% · 67% | Win in line with xG for Arsenal |
| Aston Villa 1–1 Ipswich | 2.42–0.37 | 83% · 13% · 4% | Draw against the xG: Aston Villa had 83% |
| Fulham 2–1 Nottingham Forest | 2.18–0.42 | 78% · 16% · 6% | Win in line with xG for Fulham |
| Manchester City 4–0 Newcastle | 1.90–0.48 | 72% · 20% · 8% | Win in line with xG for Manchester City |
| Southampton 1–3 Bournemouth | 0.79–1.20 | 24% · 30% · 46% | Win in line with xG for Bournemouth |
| West Ham 0–1 Brentford | 0.82–1.66 | 18% · 24% · 57% | Win in line with xG for Brentford |
| Crystal Palace 1–2 Everton | 1.72–0.96 | 55% · 24% · 21% | Won against the xG: Everton |
| Liverpool 2–1 Wolves | 1.66–1.50 | 42% · 24% · 35% | Win in line with xG for Liverpool |
| Tottenham 1–0 Manchester United | 2.23–1.52 | 54% · 20% · 26% | Win in line with xG for Tottenham |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.