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10 of 10 matches with xG: 33 goals from 28.4 xG (1.16 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leicester 0–4 Brentford | 0.51–1.52 | 12% · 25% · 62% | Win in line with xG for Brentford |
| Everton 2–2 Manchester United | 1.91–0.41 | 74% · 19% · 7% | Draw against the xG: Everton had 74% |
| Bournemouth 0–1 Wolves | 0.62–2.00 | 10% · 20% · 70% | Win in line with xG for Wolves |
| Arsenal 0–1 West Ham | 1.22–1.07 | 40% · 28% · 32% | Close call, West Ham won |
| Fulham 0–2 Crystal Palace | 0.20–1.29 | 6% · 29% · 66% | Win in line with xG for Crystal Palace |
| Ipswich 1–4 Tottenham | 1.15–1.71 | 26% · 24% · 50% | Win in line with xG for Tottenham |
| Southampton 0–4 Brighton | 0.13–3.97 | 0% · 3% · 97% | Win in line with xG for Brighton |
| Aston Villa 2–1 Chelsea | 2.33–2.30 | 41% · 19% · 40% | Win in line with xG for Aston Villa |
| Newcastle 4–3 Nottingham Forest | 2.91–1.79 | 61% · 17% · 22% | Win in line with xG for Newcastle |
| Manchester City 0–2 Liverpool | 0.65–0.71 | 29% · 39% · 32% | Close call, Liverpool won |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.