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10 of 10 matches with xG: 20 goals from 28.4 xG (0.70 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest 1–0 Manchester City | 0.73–0.86 | 29% · 35% · 36% | Close call, Nottingham Forest won |
| Brighton 2–1 Fulham | 1.54–0.90 | 52% · 26% · 22% | Win in line with xG for Brighton |
| Crystal Palace 1–0 Ipswich | 3.26–1.48 | 72% · 14% · 14% | Win in line with xG for Crystal Palace |
| Liverpool 3–1 Southampton | 4.12–0.36 | 96% · 4% · 1% | Win in line with xG for Liverpool |
| Brentford 0–1 Aston Villa | 0.83–1.32 | 24% · 28% · 48% | Win in line with xG for Aston Villa |
| Wolves 1–1 Everton | 0.77–1.41 | 20% · 27% · 52% | Draw against the xG: Everton had 52% |
| Chelsea 1–0 Leicester | 1.78–0.10 | 80% · 18% · 2% | Win in line with xG for Chelsea |
| Tottenham 2–2 Bournemouth | 1.53–2.20 | 27% · 20% · 53% | Draw against the xG: Bournemouth had 53% |
| Manchester United 1–1 Arsenal | 1.52–1.62 | 36% · 24% · 40% | Draw in line with xG |
| West Ham 0–1 Newcastle | 0.72–1.40 | 19% · 28% · 53% | Win in line with xG for Newcastle |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.