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10 of 10 matches with xG: 34 goals from 30.7 xG (1.11 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle 1–1 Manchester City | 1.57–0.91 | 53% · 25% · 22% | Draw against the xG: Newcastle had 53% |
| Arsenal 4–2 Leicester | 4.62–0.32 | 97% · 2% · 1% | Win in line with xG for Arsenal |
| Brentford 1–1 West Ham | 0.37–0.99 | 14% · 36% · 50% | Draw against the xG: West Ham had 50% |
| Chelsea 4–2 Brighton | 4.16–1.11 | 87% · 8% · 5% | Win in line with xG for Chelsea |
| Everton 2–1 Crystal Palace | 0.89–0.95 | 32% · 32% · 35% | Close call, Everton won |
| Nottingham Forest 0–1 Fulham | 0.80–1.33 | 22% · 28% · 49% | Win in line with xG for Fulham |
| Wolves 1–2 Liverpool | 0.63–2.54 | 7% · 14% · 79% | Win in line with xG for Liverpool |
| Ipswich 2–2 Aston Villa | 1.18–0.82 | 44% · 30% · 26% | Draw in line with xG |
| Manchester United 0–3 Tottenham | 0.96–4.59 | 3% · 5% · 92% | Win in line with xG for Tottenham |
| Bournemouth 3–1 Southampton | 1.38–0.60 | 56% · 28% · 16% | Win in line with xG for Bournemouth |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.