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10 of 10 matches with xG: 29 goals from 30.6 xG (0.95 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham 4–1 West Ham | 1.92–0.78 | 64% · 21% · 14% | Win in line with xG for Tottenham |
| Fulham 1–3 Aston Villa | 1.78–1.68 | 41% · 22% · 37% | Close call, Aston Villa won |
| Ipswich 0–2 Everton | 1.25–1.74 | 28% · 24% · 49% | Win in line with xG for Everton |
| Manchester United 2–1 Brentford | 1.33–0.86 | 48% · 28% · 24% | Win in line with xG for Manchester United |
| Newcastle 0–1 Brighton | 2.02–1.12 | 58% · 21% · 21% | Won against the xG: Brighton |
| Southampton 2–3 Leicester | 2.15–3.21 | 25% · 16% · 59% | Win in line with xG for Leicester |
| Bournemouth 2–0 Arsenal | 1.82–0.68 | 65% · 22% · 13% | Win in line with xG for Bournemouth |
| Wolves 1–2 Manchester City | 0.97–1.62 | 23% · 25% · 53% | Win in line with xG for Manchester City |
| Liverpool 2–1 Chelsea | 1.94–0.99 | 60% · 22% · 19% | Win in line with xG for Liverpool |
| Nottingham Forest 1–0 Crystal Palace | 1.76–0.97 | 56% · 23% · 21% | Win in line with xG for Nottingham Forest |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.