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10 of 10 matches with xG: 33 goals from 27.5 xG (1.20 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton 1–1 Everton | 1.44–1.20 | 43% · 26% · 31% | Draw in line with xG |
| Leeds 0–4 Arsenal | 0.15–2.19 | 2% · 13% · 85% | Win in line with xG for Arsenal |
| Wolves 0–2 Bournemouth | 1.38–1.36 | 38% · 26% · 37% | Close call, Bournemouth won |
| Chelsea 3–2 West Ham | 2.70–1.12 | 71% · 16% · 13% | Win in line with xG for Chelsea |
| Liverpool 4–1 Newcastle | 2.28–0.36 | 81% · 14% · 4% | Win in line with xG for Liverpool |
| Aston Villa 0–1 Brentford | 2.40–0.38 | 82% · 13% · 4% | Won against the xG: Brentford |
| Manchester United 3–2 Fulham | 1.79–1.94 | 36% · 21% · 42% | Close call, Manchester United won |
| Nottingham Forest 1–1 Crystal Palace | 0.49–1.90 | 9% · 20% · 71% | Draw against the xG: Crystal Palace had 71% |
| Tottenham 2–2 Manchester City | 1.05–2.08 | 18% · 21% · 61% | Draw against the xG: Manchester City had 61% |
| Sunderland 3–0 Burnley | 1.20–0.06 | 68% · 30% · 2% | Win in line with xG for Sunderland |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.