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10 of 10 matches with xG: 24 goals from 29.4 xG (0.82 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea 2–2 Leeds | 3.13–1.44 | 71% · 14% · 15% | Draw against the xG: Chelsea had 71% |
| Everton 1–2 Bournemouth | 2.94–1.34 | 70% · 15% · 15% | Won against the xG: Bournemouth |
| Tottenham 1–2 Newcastle | 1.85–2.48 | 29% · 19% · 52% | Win in line with xG for Newcastle |
| West Ham 1–1 Manchester United | 1.11–0.57 | 49% · 32% · 19% | Draw in line with xG |
| Aston Villa 1–0 Brighton | 0.72–0.50 | 36% · 41% · 23% | Close call, Aston Villa won |
| Crystal Palace 2–3 Burnley | 1.80–0.53 | 68% · 21% · 10% | Won against the xG: Burnley |
| Manchester City 3–0 Fulham | 1.37–1.42 | 36% · 25% · 38% | Close call, Manchester City won |
| Nottingham Forest 0–0 Wolves | 2.55–0.42 | 83% · 12% · 4% | Draw against the xG: Nottingham Forest had 83% |
| Sunderland 0–1 Liverpool | 0.63–2.53 | 7% · 14% · 79% | Win in line with xG for Liverpool |
| Brentford 1–1 Arsenal | 1.51–0.60 | 59% · 26% · 15% | Draw against the xG: Brentford had 59% |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.