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10 of 10 matches with xG: 27 goals from 30.8 xG (0.88 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest 0–3 Chelsea | 2.35–1.67 | 53% · 20% · 27% | Won against the xG: Chelsea |
| Brighton 2–1 Newcastle | 0.91–1.45 | 24% · 27% · 50% | Won against the xG: Brighton |
| Burnley 2–0 Leeds | 0.45–2.63 | 4% · 12% · 84% | Won against the xG: Burnley |
| Crystal Palace 3–3 Bournemouth | 4.44–2.03 | 77% · 11% · 12% | Draw against the xG: Crystal Palace had 77% |
| Manchester City 2–0 Everton | 2.38–0.81 | 72% · 17% · 11% | Win in line with xG for Manchester City |
| Sunderland 2–0 Wolves | 0.65–0.83 | 26% · 37% · 37% | Close call, Sunderland won |
| Fulham 0–1 Arsenal | 0.44–1.87 | 8% · 20% · 72% | Win in line with xG for Arsenal |
| Tottenham 1–2 Aston Villa | 0.75–0.32 | 42% · 43% · 14% | Won against the xG: Aston Villa |
| Liverpool 1–2 Manchester United | 2.75–1.34 | 67% · 16% · 16% | Won against the xG: Manchester United |
| West Ham 0–2 Brentford | 0.35–2.37 | 4% · 13% · 83% | Win in line with xG for Brentford |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.