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9 of 9 matches with xG: 27 goals from 29.5 xG (0.91 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Düsseldorf 0–2 Schalke 04 | 1.12–1.68 | 25% · 24% · 50% | Win in line with xG for Schalke 04 |
| Preußen Münster 2–2 Hannover 96 | 2.67–0.72 | 79% · 14% · 8% | Draw against the xG: Preußen Münster had 79% |
| VfL Bochum 1–0 Arminia Bielefeld | 2.23–0.85 | 69% · 18% · 13% | Win in line with xG for VfL Bochum |
| 1. FC Kaiserslautern 3–1 Dynamo Dresden | 1.96–0.68 | 68% · 20% · 12% | Win in line with xG for 1. FC Kaiserslautern |
| Paderborn 1–2 SV Elversberg | 0.63–0.78 | 27% · 38% · 36% | Close call, SV Elversberg won |
| SV Darmstadt 98 3–2 Karlsruher SC | 4.06–0.53 | 94% · 5% · 2% | Win in line with xG for SV Darmstadt 98 |
| Eintracht Braunschweig 1–1 Holstein Kiel | 2.61–0.71 | 78% · 14% · 8% | Draw against the xG: Eintracht Braunschweig had 78% |
| Hertha BSC 0–2 1. FC Magdeburg | 2.53–2.95 | 34% · 17% · 48% | Win in line with xG for 1. FC Magdeburg |
| 1. FC Nürnberg 2–2 SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 1.24–1.59 | 30% · 25% · 46% | Draw in line with xG |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.