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8 of 9 matches with xG: 22 goals from 25.3 xG (0.87 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arminia Bielefeld 2–2 Holstein Kiel | 1.43–0.98 | 47% · 27% · 26% | Draw in line with xG |
| SV Darmstadt 98 2–0 1. FC Nürnberg | 1.22–1.50 | 31% · 25% · 44% | Close call, SV Darmstadt 98 won |
| SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0–0 Eintracht Braunschweig | 0.71–2.49 | 9% · 15% · 76% | Draw against the xG: Eintracht Braunschweig had 76% |
| Hannover 96 2–1 Fortuna Düsseldorf | 1.96–0.72 | 67% · 21% · 13% | Win in line with xG for Hannover 96 |
| Karlsruher SC 2–2 Hertha BSC | 2.17–1.92 | 45% · 20% · 35% | Draw in line with xG |
| SV Elversberg 1–1 VfL Bochum | 2.15–1.19 | 59% · 20% · 20% | Draw against the xG: SV Elversberg had 59% |
| Paderborn 2–1 Preußen Münster | 3.79–0.59 | 91% · 6% · 2% | Win in line with xG for Paderborn |
| Schalke 04 2–2 1. FC Kaiserslautern | 1.60–0.91 | 54% · 25% · 21% | Draw against the xG: Schalke 04 had 54% |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.