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9 of 10 matches with xG: 24 goals from 22.4 xG (1.07 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Preußen Münster 3–1 MSV Duisburg | 1.05–1.18 | 32% · 29% · 39% | Close call, Preußen Münster won |
| Dynamo Dresden 2–2 Rot-Weiß Essen | 2.45–0.35 | 84% · 13% · 4% | Draw against the xG: Dynamo Dresden had 84% |
| FC Viktoria Köln 2–1 SV Sandhausen | 1.02–1.13 | 32% · 29% · 38% | Close call, FC Viktoria Köln won |
| SSV Jahn Regensburg 0–0 Erzgebirge Aue | 0.31–0.58 | 16% · 49% · 35% | Draw in line with xG |
| SpVgg Unterhaching 3–4 Borussia Dortmund II | 0.76–2.30 | 11% · 17% · 72% | Win in line with xG for Borussia Dortmund II |
| SSV Ulm 1846 0–0 FC Ingolstadt 04 | 1.17–0.88 | 43% · 30% · 28% | Draw in line with xG |
| Verl 0–1 TSV 1860 München | 0.71–0.80 | 29% · 37% · 34% | Close call, TSV 1860 München won |
| Hallescher FC 3–0 VfB Lübeck | 2.23–1.66 | 51% · 20% · 29% | Win in line with xG for Hallescher FC |
| FC Saarbrücken 1–1 Arminia Bielefeld | 1.73–2.09 | 32% · 21% · 47% | Draw in line with xG |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.