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10 of 10 matches with xG: 22 goals from 27.3 xG (0.81 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dynamo Dresden 2–1 TSV 1860 München | 1.25–1.10 | 40% · 28% · 32% | Win in line with xG for Dynamo Dresden |
| FC Viktoria Köln 2–2 Waldhof Mannheim | 2.51–1.80 | 54% · 19% · 28% | Draw against the xG: FC Viktoria Köln had 54% |
| FC Saarbrücken 2–0 Erzgebirge Aue | 3.05–0.13 | 93% · 6% · 1% | Win in line with xG for FC Saarbrücken |
| SSV Jahn Regensburg 1–1 FC Ingolstadt 04 | 0.22–1.98 | 3% · 16% · 80% | Draw against the xG: FC Ingolstadt 04 had 80% |
| Freiburg II 3–0 VfB Lübeck | 1.58–0.69 | 59% · 25% · 16% | Win in line with xG for Freiburg II |
| Borussia Dortmund II 0–2 Arminia Bielefeld | 0.63–2.27 | 9% · 17% · 75% | Win in line with xG for Arminia Bielefeld |
| Preußen Münster 1–0 Hallescher FC | 0.60–0.55 | 30% · 43% · 27% | Close call, Preußen Münster won |
| SpVgg Unterhaching 1–0 MSV Duisburg | 1.95–1.68 | 45% · 22% · 34% | Win in line with xG for SpVgg Unterhaching |
| Verl 1–1 Rot-Weiß Essen | 3.16–0.79 | 83% · 11% · 6% | Draw against the xG: Verl had 83% |
| SSV Ulm 1846 2–0 SV Sandhausen | 0.91–0.47 | 45% · 37% · 18% | Win in line with xG for SSV Ulm 1846 |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.