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9 of 10 matches with xG: 34 goals from 26.7 xG (1.27 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Ingolstadt 04 3–3 Hannover 96 II | 2.55–1.43 | 62% · 18% · 20% | Draw against the xG: FC Ingolstadt 04 had 62% |
| SpVgg Unterhaching 2–2 Stuttgart II | 1.91–1.45 | 48% · 22% · 29% | Draw in line with xG |
| Rot-Weiß Essen 4–2 Erzgebirge Aue | 1.95–1.86 | 41% · 21% · 38% | Win in line with xG for Rot-Weiß Essen |
| Hansa Rostock 4–0 Verl | 1.06–0.53 | 48% · 34% · 18% | Win in line with xG for Hansa Rostock |
| Dynamo Dresden 0–1 VfL Osnabrück | 0.97–0.42 | 48% · 36% · 16% | Won against the xG: VfL Osnabrück |
| Alemannia Aachen 2–1 SV Sandhausen | 1.43–1.36 | 39% · 25% · 36% | Win in line with xG for Alemannia Aachen |
| Waldhof Mannheim 0–3 TSV 1860 München | 1.00–1.46 | 26% · 26% · 48% | Win in line with xG for TSV 1860 München |
| Borussia Dortmund II 4–1 Energie Cottbus | 4.01–2.08 | 72% · 12% · 16% | Win in line with xG for Borussia Dortmund II |
| FC Viktoria Köln 0–2 Arminia Bielefeld | 0.75–0.51 | 37% · 40% · 22% | Close call, Arminia Bielefeld won |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.