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10 of 10 matches with xG: 26 goals from 27.9 xG (0.93 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| TSV 1860 München 2–1 Alemannia Aachen | 0.53–0.20 | 35% · 53% · 11% | Close call, TSV 1860 München won |
| SV Sandhausen 0–2 Rot-Weiß Essen | 0.63–2.06 | 10% · 19% · 71% | Win in line with xG for Rot-Weiß Essen |
| Energie Cottbus 1–0 FC Viktoria Köln | 2.15–0.22 | 83% · 14% · 3% | Win in line with xG for Energie Cottbus |
| SV Wehen 3–0 SpVgg Unterhaching | 4.29–0.49 | 95% · 4% · 1% | Win in line with xG for SV Wehen |
| Arminia Bielefeld 4–0 Hansa Rostock | 3.97–0.55 | 93% · 5% · 2% | Win in line with xG for Arminia Bielefeld |
| Stuttgart II 1–1 Verl | 0.87–0.19 | 52% · 41% · 8% | Draw against the xG: Stuttgart II had 52% |
| VfL Osnabrück 1–0 FC Ingolstadt 04 | 1.43–1.16 | 43% · 26% · 31% | Win in line with xG for VfL Osnabrück |
| FC Saarbrücken 1–4 Dynamo Dresden | 1.88–2.76 | 26% · 18% · 57% | Win in line with xG for Dynamo Dresden |
| Hannover 96 II 1–1 Waldhof Mannheim | 1.35–0.59 | 55% · 28% · 16% | Draw against the xG: Hannover 96 II had 55% |
| Erzgebirge Aue 2–1 Borussia Dortmund II | 1.81–0.74 | 63% · 22% · 15% | Win in line with xG for Erzgebirge Aue |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.